CNN
Images from
space reveal an enormous X-shaped building rising up from rocky terrain in
southwestern China. This is a huge nuclear fusion research facility, analysts
say, and it could be a sign China is leaping ahead in the quest to harness this
futuristic energy source. It could also mean they are amping up nuclear weapons
development.Decker Eveleth, an analyst at US-based research organization the
CNA Corporation, has been among those watching this facility for years. In
2020, a US official released images purporting to show various potential
Chinese nuclear locations, including the site near Mianyang in Sichuan
province.
At this point, it was basically “a
patch of dirt,” Eveleth told CNN. But after Covid shutdowns were lifted,
construction accelerated. The project is described as a “laser fusion” facility
in contract documents obtained by Eveleth and seen by CNN. If the facility is indeed a laser
facility, it will offer a unique way of studying materials in extreme
conditions. It allows scientists to create “pressures that are typically found
in the center of stars or in nuclear weapons,” said Brian Appelbe, a research
fellow from the Centre for Inertial Fusion Studies at Imperial College London.
Eveleth says the four
giant arms shown in the satellite image are “bays” which will be able to shoot
lasers at the tall, central tower, which houses a target chamber containing
hydrogen isotopes. The laser energy fuses the hydrogen together to create a burst
of energy in a process called ignition. Nuclear fusion offers the tantalizing
prospect of abundant, clean energy without the long-lived radioactive waste
problem of nuclear fission, the world’s current nuclear energy technology.
Countries and companies across the world are in a race to master it.
The US has long been a
leader. The National Ignition Facility in California, which also uses
laser-ignition technology, made a huge fusion energy breakthrough in 2022. In a
world first, NIF scientists achieved a successful nuclear fusion reaction with
a net energy gain (although they didn’t count the energy needed to power the
lasers). It was a
big step forward in the decades-long quest to recreate on Earth the reaction
which powers the sun and other stars. But this new facility in China could be a
sign China is starting to to edge ahead.
“It signals that they are serious
about fusion” said Melanie Windridge, CEO of Fusion Energy Insights, an
industry monitoring organization. “They are being decisive, moving quickly and
getting things done.” Eveleth
estimates China’s Mianyang research center will be around 50% bigger than the
United States’ NIF and, once completed, likely the biggest facility of its kind
in the world. Its size
could have advantages. A larger laser allows higher pressures and more material
can be compressed, potentially increasing the energy achieved from nuclear
fusion experiments, Appelbe told CNN. Although, he cautioned, achieving a
successful fusion experiment is “extremely challenging” even with a very large
laser. CNN
contacted China’s Ministries of National Defense and of Science and Technology
for comment but had not heard back at the time of publication. Experts say the
facility also gives China the ability to research nuclear weapons.
China and the US are
both parties to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which prohibits
nuclear explosions. The
level of energy unleashed by nuclear weapons is very difficult to simulate with
computers and other conventional methods. This is where laser-ignition fusion
facilities can help, Eveleth said. They can shine high-powered lasers onto
various materials to simulate the conditions in the first few microseconds
after a nuclear explosion.
“Any country with an NIF-type facility
can and probably will be increasing their confidence and improving existing
weapons designs,” William Alberque, a nuclear policy analyst at the Henry L.
Stimson Centre, told Reuters. A
positive interpretation of the facility is that it provides reassurance China
isn’t planning any explosive nuclear testing, Eveleth said. But, he added, it
could also allow them to develop more sophisticated designs, including smaller
nuclear weapons. Some
experts believe the Mianyang site may end being a different kind of fusion
facility, a hybrid of fusion and fission.
“If this proves to be true, it is
particularly alarming,” said Andrew Holland, chief executive of the Fusion
Industry Association. This would be homegrown Chinese tech and “likely more
powerful than anything of that type in Western countries.” Regardless, the
facility “is clearly part of an ambitious program,” Holland told CNN.
The US is still ahead in the fusion race for now, he added,
but “China is moving fast” and has shown it can move from concept to completion
much faster than any government programs.
“It is time to build, it is time to
invest,” Holland said. “If the US and its allies do not, then China will win
this race.”